Performance of A Civil Engineer's Crystal Ball from 1900
Reflections on how historical technology predictions turned out is a very useful way of refining future predictions
During the time when glow of gas lamps and the clatter of horse-drawn carriages formed everyday life, civil engineer John Elfreth Watkins dared to visualise a very different future. For the December 1900 issue of The Ladies Home Journal, he sketched out 29 prophecies for the year 2000, under the headline "What May Happen in the Next Hundred Years." The predictions did not stem from illusions of possessing special magical powers - despite my suggestive title - or near-death experiences that showed him deep secrets. This was simply an engineer's faith in progress and the arrow of time.
"These prophecies will all be fulfilled," he wrote.
Watkins went on to forecast a world of wonders, from supersonic trains to submarine travel.
So, how did he do?
Watkins was generally correct on about 16 predictions (we may differ on this), often with uncanny foresight. For example, he wrote "man will see around the world from his fireside," capturing the essence of today's Teams/Zoom calls, live streaming, and satellite TV—global chit-chats at the flick of a switch. He predicted rail travel at 150 miles per hour, a reality delivered by Japan's Shinkansen and Europe's TGV lines. On color photography, he said "Pictures taken on glass... will show the color as well as the form of the object,". Enter the Instagram era. He even nailed the explosion of fast food: "Hot, ready-mixed foods will be sold in grocery stores... delivered to the home already cooked." Think UberEats, DoorDash meeting meal kits. He wrote of wireless tech, as in "Telegraphs without wires". That sounds like Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, and 5G!
He also had many misses. Watkins dreamed of universal central heating in every home—noble, but unevenly adopted amid energy costs and regional realities. Skyscrapers would soar to 25,000 feet with rooftop farms! OK, Burj Khalifa hits the clouds at 2,700 feet - but these are still niche. He was kind of right on submarines for ocean liners, in that they are technically feasible but who needs them when we have planes? How about the very boldest bust: "The American flag will fly from the most western of the Aleutian islands to the farthest peaks of Patagonia," implying a merged Anglo-American superstate by 1950. This is where long term political predictions are far less reliable than those based on scientific progress.
However, Watkins' exercise is a gold mine of timeless lessons for today's tinkerers and entrepreneurs. On technology: Progress favors the practical over the flashy. His successful predictions clustered around practical desirability, connectivity and convenience. Who wants the ‘hard’ and ‘boring’ stuff? We don't always chase moonshots; we crave tools that make life less frictional.
The wins and fails also remind us of human behavior: We're wired for wonder, yet anchored by habit. Watkins assumed rational ascent—faster, taller, united—but overlooked our “tribal” loyalties and love of the familiar. We invent EVs but hoard gas guzzlers. Invention needs to win the human heart.
Technologies that are supported by the current “known” laws of physics and are desirable for a vast majority of humans will ultimately become reality. Only time is a variable, dependent on how long it takes for costs to be overcome.
Full list of Watkins’ prophesies, in his very entertaining language, can be found here: https://www3.cs.stonybrook.edu/~tony/future/lectures/1900%20Predictions.pdf
Suggestion: Scoring Watkins’ list for wins and fails, and answering ‘why’ the score is as it is for each prediction, could be a great exercise for your teams.