Uranium Extraction from Seawater may FINALLY be Viable

New technology will unlock an era of relative uranium abundance

Early Hopes and Research

For decades, the idea of extracting uranium from seawater has tantalized scientists and energy strategists. The oceans contain an estimated 4.5 billion metric tons of uranium—1,000 times more than terrestrial reserves—dissolved in concentrations of about 3.3 parts per billion. If harnessed economically, this vast resource could secure nuclear fuel supplies for millennia. Recent breakthroughs, particularly from China, suggest the technology may finally be nearing commercial viability, with profound implications for global the global uranium supply/demand dynamics.

The concept of seawater uranium extraction dates back to the 1960s, when Japanese researchers first explored adsorbent materials to capture uranium ions. Early efforts used hydrous titanium oxide, but low efficiency and high costs rendered the approach impractical. By the 1980s, Japan’s focus shifted to amidoxime-based polymers, which showed promise in selectively binding uranium. Despite promising technical progress, extraction costs remained prohibitive—often exceeding $200 per pound, compared to $70-$80 for conventionally mined uranium.

Western research, led by institutions like the U.S. Department of Energy’s Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), advanced adsorbent technologies in the 2010s. PNNL’s polymer fibers, inspired by mussel adhesion, improved uranium capture rates, but scaling remained a challenge. Meanwhile, global uranium demand grew modestly, with conventional land-based mining in Kazakhstan, Canada, and Australia meeting most needs.

A Chinese Breakthrough

In 2024, Chinese researchers at the China Institute of Atomic Energy announced a game-changer: a graphene oxide-based adsorbent paired with a low-energy electrochemical process. Published from 2024 and most recently in Nature Sustainability (2024), their method reportedly slashes extraction costs to $83 per kilogram ($37.65 per pound)—competitive with current spot prices of $71-$72 per pound. The technology uses a tailored electric field to enhance uranium ion

adsorption, reducing energy inputs by 40% compared to earlier methods. Lab tests demonstrated a 20-fold increase in uranium recovery rates over traditional adsorbents.

This follows China’s 2023 development of a carbon-based nanomaterial for seawater extraction, hinting at a national push to dominate this field. With 28 nuclear reactors under construction and plans for 150 more by 2050, China’s interest is clear: securing a stable, geopolitically independent uranium supply.

Implications for the Uranium Market and the Playing Field

The uranium market, already strained by supply constraints, could face disruption if seawater extraction scales. Kazakhstan’s production cuts, due to sulfuric acid shortages, and the U.S. ban on Russian uranium imports have tightened supplies, pushing long-term contract prices to $80 per pound. Seawater extraction could ease these pressures, potentially capping price spikes that are currently forecast to reach $90-$100 per pound by 2030.

However, scalability remains a hurdle. Current technologies require vast adsorbent arrays and months-long submersion, limiting output to kilograms rather than the metric tons needed for commercial reactors. Analysts estimate that even with China’s advances, large-scale production is at least a decade away. Until then, traditional miners like Cameco and Kazatomprom will continue to dominate, benefiting from elevated prices.

Should seawater extraction take-off, China stands to gain the most initially, leveraging its state-backed research and nuclear expansion. Companies like China National Nuclear Corp. could integrate seawater uranium into their supply chains, reducing reliance on imports from Kazakhstan and Canada. Japan, with its decades of research into seawater extraction, may follow fast, particularly if the big Japanese players choose to license Chinese innovations.

Western miners face risks. If seawater extraction becomes cost-competitive, traditional firms like Cameco and Energy Fuels Inc. could see revenues threatened and margins squeezed on high-cost projects. However, near-term supply constraints and rising demand from AI-driven data centres and small modular reactors ensure traditional miners’ dominance and relevance for now.

Dream Phase Over

Seawater uranium extraction is no longer a pipe dream, but it’s not yet a market disruptor. China’s cost breakthroughs mark a turning point, yet engineering challenges and environmental concerns—such as the ecological impact of large-scale ocean operations—still have to be addressed. For investors, the focus remains on traditional uranium plays, with an eye on Chinese firms advancing extraction tech. For the world, a viable oceanic uranium supply could redefine energy security, particularly for nuclear-hungry nations. The race to tap the ocean’s riches is on—but it’s a marathon, not a sprint.